Red flags in our research on Derive: 1. Read them before anything else.

Derive price prediction

$0.4071 last daily close, 6 October 2026 DRV PRO Pro Listed on: Upbit · LBank · Kraken +4

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Our model projects Derive at $0.0679 in 2030 and $0.1205 by 2036 — -70.4% against the last daily close of $0.4071, in the base case. The 2030 range runs from $0.00204897 in the bear case to $1.10 in the bull case.

Why below today's price? Most altcoins lose ground to Bitcoin over a full cycle — between the 2021 and 2025 peaks, only 3.5% of those we measured gained on it — and the model starts Derive from that base rate. Why Most Altcoins Lose to Bitcoin, Cycle After Cycle

Forecasts are algorithmic estimates, not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile — never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Forecast updated 1 October 2026 · Model: alt-ratio 1.9.0

Derive price prediction year by year

Year-end central forecast and the band around it. Select a year for the model's reasoning. In 2026, a quarter that has already begun and has no forecast of its own shows the observed closing price instead: “close” once the quarter is over, “latest close” while it is still under way.

Derive price prediction year by year
Year	Forecast	×	ROI	Y/Y	Range	Low	High	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Conf.
2026	$0.3054	×0.75	-25.0%	-25.0%	$0.1066 – $0.6608	—	—	$0.0654 close	$0.1109 close	$0.3897 close	$0.3054	6.5/10
Derive price prediction 2026 What the model reads Bitcoin's trajectory multiplied by today's DRV/BTC ratio and a drift measured across the whole altcoin universe. Nothing is fitted to DRV alone — every per-coin parameter that was tested lost to the shared drift. The shape of the year First year of the trajectory, with no previous year to compare against. Against today -25.0% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 85% of the time; the published confidence, 6.5/10, sits lower — it starts from what our documented research establishes about the project itself, and nothing raises it back.
2027	$0.2192	×0.54	-46.2%	-28.2%	$0.0227 – $1.20	—	—	$0.3075	$0.2799	$0.2362	$0.2192	6.5/10
Derive price prediction 2027 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2027 -28.2% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q1 and the low point in Q4. Against today -46.2% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 85% of the time; the published confidence, 6.5/10, sits lower — it starts from what our documented research establishes about the project itself, and nothing raises it back.
2028	$0.1572	×0.39	-61.4%	-28.3%	$0.0122 – $1.31	—	—	$0.2074	$0.1666	$0.1575	$0.1572	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2028 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2028 -28.3% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q1 and the low point in Q4. Against today -61.4% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 85% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2029	$0.1087	×0.27	-73.3%	-30.8%	$0.00492773 – $1.39	—	—	$0.1453	$0.1371	$0.1248	$0.1087	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2029 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2029 -30.8% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q1 and the low point in Q4. Against today -73.3% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 84% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2030	$0.0679	×0.17	-83.3%	-37.5%	$0.00204897 – $1.10	—	—	$0.0944	$0.0771	$0.0699	$0.0679	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2030 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2030 -37.5% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q1 and the low point in Q4. Against today -83.3% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 82% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2031	$0.0845	×0.21	-79.2%	+24.5%	$0.00229955 – $4.70	—	—	$0.0762	$0.0828	$0.0860	$0.0845	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2031 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2031 +24.5% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q3 and the low point in Q1. Against today -79.2% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 79% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2032	$0.0786	×0.19	-80.7%	-7.0%	$0.00231796 – $4.57	—	—	$0.0837	$0.0777	$0.0768	$0.0786	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2032 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2032 -7.0% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q1 and the low point in Q3. Against today -80.7% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 76% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2033	$0.0786	×0.19	-80.7%	+0.0%	$0.00229307 – $4.30	—	—	$0.0780	$0.0776	$0.0760	$0.0786	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2033 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2033 +0.0% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q4 and the low point in Q3. Against today -80.7% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 73% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2034	$0.0822	×0.20	-79.8%	+4.5%	$0.00238202 – $4.49	—	—	$0.0789	$0.0798	$0.0809	$0.0822	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2034 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2034 +4.5% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q4 and the low point in Q1. Against today -79.8% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 70% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2035	$0.1036	×0.25	-74.5%	+26.1%	$0.0026382 – $5.66	—	—	$0.0874	$0.0944	$0.0986	$0.1036	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2035 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2035 +26.1% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q4 and the low point in Q1. Against today -74.5% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 68% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.
2036	$0.1205	×0.30	-70.4%	+16.2%	$0.00330445 – $6.58	—	—	$0.1095	$0.1140	$0.1205	—	5.9/10
Derive price prediction 2036 The shape of the year The model puts the end of 2036 +16.2% from where the previous year ended. Inside the year, the high point falls in Q3 and the low point in Q1. Against today -70.4% against the current price of $0.4071. What the model does not claim The band is built to hold the price 65% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.

Derive: the case for and against

What our documented research establishes about the project itself, with its sources. It is an assessment of the project, not the reason behind the number: the price model reads price series only.

Derive (formerly Lyra) is an established DeFi protocol with multi-year operational history, audits by Sigma Prime and OpenZeppelin, and institutional backing from Tier-1 VCs. The protocol maintains active trading, strategic partnerships (e.g. Ethena, FalconX), and listings on major exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb. Dilution concerns surrounding token supply expansion proposals temper overall token stability.

Strengths

Operated continuously since 2021 (originally as Lyra Finance) as a leading decentralized options and perpetuals trading protocol. www.rootdata.com ↗

Backed by prominent crypto venture capital firms including Framework Ventures, ParaFi Capital, Variant Fund, and Robot Ventures. www.rootdata.com ↗

Protocol smart contracts audited by recognized security firms including Sigma Prime and OpenZeppelin. milkroad.com ↗

Risks

Governance proposal by co-founders to increase DRV total token supply by 500 million (50% increase) created token dilution concerns. www.rootdata.com ↗

Decentralized options trading is a niche market with strong competition from major perpetual and derivatives exchanges. milkroad.com ↗

Red flags

Proposed 50% token supply expansion (500 million DRV) creating ongoing dilution risk for token holders.

Research: trust review · gemini-3.6-flash · 2026-08-22

Methodology

What the model reads

Bitcoin's trajectory multiplied by today's DRV/BTC ratio and a drift measured across the whole altcoin universe. Nothing is fitted to DRV alone — every per-coin parameter that was tested lost to the shared drift.

How the models work · Why Most Altcoins Lose to Bitcoin, Cycle After Cycle

Model confidence

Model confidence for DRV in 2030

The band is built to hold the price 82% of the time. At a shorter horizon, a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more — so we publish 5.9/10.

Only the nearest horizons rest on a backtest. Later years carry a declared level — the band’s design level, capped by our research score — that no backtest can confirm yet; where one found the band holding the price less often, we publish that lower figure.

What model confidence means

Exchanges

Where it trades

Upbittrust 8/10

LBanktrust 9/10

Krakentrust 10/10

Coinbase Exchangetrust 10/10

Gatetrust 9/10

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Derive is one of 510 coins in our crypto price predictions, year by year.

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Before you start

Frequently asked questions

What will Derive be worth in 2030?

The base case puts DRV at $0.0679 in 2030, between $0.00204897 and $1.10. The band is built to hold the price 82% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.

What is the Derive price prediction for 2027?

For 2027, the base case puts DRV at $0.2192, between $0.0227 and $1.20. The band is built to hold the price 85% of the time; the published confidence, 6.5/10, sits lower — it starts from what our documented research establishes about the project itself, and nothing raises it back.

How high can Derive go by 2036?

The top of the model’s 2036 uncertainty band is $6.58. The base case remains $0.1205 — read the range, not the single number.

What will Derive be worth in 10 years?

Our furthest horizon is 2036, about ten years out: the base case puts DRV at $0.1205, between $0.00330445 and $6.58. The band is built to hold the price 65% of the time; at a shorter horizon a backtest in today’s market found such bands holding the price only 59% of the time, and a figure further out cannot claim more, so we publish 5.9/10.

Is Derive a good long-term investment?

Our base case for Derive in 2036 is -70.4% against today’s price — below where it trades now — inside a band from $0.00330445 to $6.58. That is not financial advice, and not a recommendation either way.

Derive price prediction

Derive price chart

Pro forecast

Derive price prediction year by year

Derive price prediction 2026

Derive price prediction 2027

Derive price prediction 2028

Derive price prediction 2029

Derive price prediction 2030

Derive price prediction 2031

Derive price prediction 2032

Derive price prediction 2033

Derive price prediction 2034

Derive price prediction 2035

Derive price prediction 2036

Derive: the case for and against

Related forecasts

Frequently asked questions